The direction signal does not work. Seven signals were tested out of sample
on 58 sessions of 5-minute NIFTY bars. The best, 15-minute momentum, scored an
information coefficient of +0.037 with a 47.5% hit rate. Hit rates ranged
45–52%, and every single one lost money after costs — between −1.6 and −4.9
NIFTY points per trade, against −2.7 for a coin flip. Conditioning on the opening
45 minutes or on high volatility produced nothing that survived its own error bars.
The signal is shown because you asked for it, permanently wired to these numbers.
Use your own read of the chart instead.
What is measured and does hold up: the touch probabilities and the cost maths.
Those come from 4,235 ten-minute windows and from the live chain, and they are
arithmetic rather than prediction.
P(NIFTY touches +X points) — 58 sessions, May–Aug 2026
One regime, three months. Ranges expand and contract; treat these as orders of
magnitude, not constants.